عنوان مقاله [English]
Measurement of temporal-spatial distribution of surface subsidence as a result of production from hydrocarbon reservoirs is a relatively common practice worldwide; however, it is set aside in Iran, although it seems that prediction of subsidence trend at the beginning of the reservoir life can be beneficial in future production estimates. In this paper, the accuracy of the numerical modeling for calculating subsidence process is evaluated by comparison with the in-situ measurements recordings, as well as those designated from analytical solutions for two hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA, and the Netherlands. It was observed that the numerical simulations can well trace the subsidence trend in spite of elastic behavior assumption, and other simplifications considered. Although, the real mechanism of subsidence is inelastic, and parameters variations are possible. Afterwards, the distribution of temporal-spatial surface subsidence in a specified zone of Kupal oil field, Iran, was predicted. Moreover, unlike the verification examples, in which pressure changes in the whole reservoir had been considered to determine settlements, the “production history” of some wells was used in the simulations. It was concluded that production from the selected area in the Kupal oil field has resulted in surface subsidence in the range of 26 to 32 cm in the period between years of 1372-1396.